代理：倘实体经济理想 升幅更高

中港全面通关，有代理认为，势令今年工商铺交投走出低谷，料商铺及甲厦量可反弹3成以上，该代理认为仍要留意实体经济因素，若表现胜预期，升幅将更高。

去年为投资市场表现较差一年，年初爆发第5波疫情和俄乌战争，美国联储局又连续7度加息至4.25厘，本港利率因此跟随上调，令银行及企业资金成本增加，加上政府全年整体仍然实施较为保守的防疫措施，令工商铺成交量大幅下挫。据代理行数据，连同逾亿元公司转让成交在内，2022年工商铺成交量及金额分别录4,490宗及837.2亿元，按年皆大跌约35.9%。预计今年工商铺成交量将可达至5,800宗水平，按年增加约3成，当中写字楼和商铺升幅会更显著。

估计五一 可反映零售业反弹

踏入2023年，整体市况即有明显转变，首先1月初中港通关，旅客开始重临香港，而农历年后，中港更是全面通关，所有口岸重新开放，意味全面復常。代理认为，首阶段受惠的，定必是商铺市场，「最近见尖沙咀广东道重现旅客于名店外排队，即使未算完全回復，已经是好开始。」该代理料租务市场上，仍以日用品为主商户率先扩充。事实上，最近尖沙咀广东道、弥敦道，以及上水一带商铺，均见药房扩充，「近来见药房先扩充，奢侈品未必立即受惠，因中港全面通关在极短时间内出现，很多大型品牌在订货上未赶及，估计在五一黄金周，便真正反映香港零售业的反弹情况。」

中港长达3年封关，成为经济一大冲击，如今中港重新通关，市面上气氛即转好，亦令投资者憧憬今年经济反弹。惟该代理强调，仍要留意实体经济表现如何，「投资市场已走出最差时间是可以肯定，但到底是否通关后，工商铺立即大反弹？绝对要留意实体经济情况，毕竟疫情持续了3年，经济需时復原，而中美仍不时有摩擦，市场上尚有不明朗因素。若实体经济表现好，整体工商铺买卖升幅定更理想。从实际市况看，代理坦言今年工商铺市况反弹，仍难回復疫情前水平，「若最终回復6至7成，已算非常满意。」

另一困扰投资市场的因素，为美国去年加息甚急，令本港息口亦向上。工商铺向来为投资品，加息打击投资需求。对于息口因素，该代理反而认为不是关键，「近期市场均相信，美国加息近见顶，若出现回落讯号，「聪明钱」会率先入市，以博物业日后升值。何况连环加息，会出现通胀，传统智慧令资产价格上升，势令投资者买砖头抗通涨，更有利工商铺市场。」

看好核心区甲厦 价量回升

通关后商铺市场最快有反应，该代理则分析，今年最看好商厦市场。代理指出疫情期间，民生区商铺租金并没有下挫，而工厦呎价更是有上升，反观甲厦租售价持续显下挫，主因外资及中资机构未能来港扩充，如今香港与内地及海外全面通关，势对甲厦有帮助。至于近两年，甲厦出现供应高峰，会否担心构成压力？「供应多还要看哪些地区，中环、金鐘指标甲厦，始终与九龙区不同，核心区甲厦供应始终少，亦是机构首选，看好核心区甲厦，价量势从谷底回升。」

(经济日报)

Koko Rosso flats in hot demand, more on way

A second price list of flats at Koko Rosso in Lam Tin, developed by Wheelock Properties, is expected to released as early as today after the first list of 88 flats was 22 times oversubscribed with 2,000 checks received over the weekend.

The number of flats in the second list will be 10 percent more than the first and prices may also increase by as much as 10 percent, said managing director Ricky Wong Kwong-yiu.

He added that at least 20 customers have enquired about the special units with rooftops.

Details of the tender for these top-floor flats might be revealed when sales are launched at the end of this month.

The third phase of Wheelock's Koko Hills project, Koko Rosso offers a total of 392 flats with areas ranging from 300 to 988 square feet.

The first batch featured mostly smaller flats ranging from 300 sq ft to 497 sq ft.

The selling price of the first batch was about 10 percent lower than those sold at Koko Hills in 2020, with the cheapest unit priced at HK$5.54 million.

As 70 percent of the checks received were from first-time home buyers, Wong said that the developer might offer special payment plans for this group.

Meanwhile, in the secondary market, 15 transactions were recorded at 10 major housing estates over the weekend according to a property agency.

It was the ninth week of double-digit transactions although the number shrank 37 percent from last week's 24 deals.

An agent said that buyers were attracted to the busy primary market, and it was difficult for them to find good deals in the secondary market with owners reluctant to cut prices amid the buoyant market sentiment.

However, there was an unusual loss-making deal at Taikoo Shing over the weekend when a 715-sq-ft three-bedroom flat changed hands at about HK$13 million or HK$18,182 per sq ft with the seller, who had bought the flat for HK$14.65 million six years ago, suffering a HK$1.65 million or 11 percent loss on his initial investment.