受疫情及美國聯儲局連番加息影響，甲廈市場陰霾密布。有外資代理行代理接受本報訪問時指出，今年7月甲廈空置樓面衝上1000萬方呎大關，創歷來新高水平，等同五幢國際金融中心二期，空置率高達12.3%，加上新供應「排隊」出場，涉及面積達700萬方呎，預測今年底空置率將攀升至14.8%，將打破自1999年紀錄，空置樓面高踞不下，料明年整體甲廈租金跌約5%至10%。

該代理指出，受疫情等因素打擊，整體甲廈市場表現持續回軟，據該行統計資料顯示，今年7月底甲廈市場空置樓面已達1000萬方呎，創歷來新高水平，回顧市場對上空置樓面為1999年，然而，當時空置樓面僅約840萬方呎，故最新空置樓面較舊紀錄高約19%，反映現今甲廈市場表現疲弱。

等同5幢國際金融中心二期

該代理續說，受社會運動於2019年中爆發，為甲廈市場近年的「分水嶺」，加上新冠疫情緊接於2020年爆發，受多項負面因素夾擊，隨本港經濟基調持續惡化，甲廈市場表現急走下坡，部分企業紛縮減規模以求存，令市場吸納量由正轉為負，市場迄今錄負吸納量達300萬方呎。

700萬方呎新供應出台

事實上，甲廈市場錄1000萬方呎空置樓面，該數字相當驚人，以指標甲廈中環國際金融中心二期為例，該廈總樓面約200萬方呎計，故最新空置樓面等同五幢國際金融中心二期。

代理續指出，上月甲廈市場空置率報12.3%，以現今市況估計，加上市場供應可說是「排住隊」出場，環顧市場於今年及明年供應高達700萬方呎，市場於短期內難以消化，故預測空置率持續上升，料今年底該數字將上升至14.8%，屆時將打破自1999年14.4%舊紀錄，然而，該代理強調當年市場佔比14.4%的樓面遠遠低於現今水平，故若以空置率計，未能反映現今實際市況。

料明年租金跌5%至10%

當被問及甲廈市場何時可走出低谷，該代理指，市場憧憬中港兩地有機於年底前通關，屆時中資企業勢將回歸，對市場需求具一定刺激作用，故料明年甲廈租金下跌約5%至10%。

(星島日報)

更多國際金融中心寫字樓出租樓盤資訊請參閱：國際金融中心寫字樓出租

更多中環區甲級寫字樓出租樓盤資訊請參閱：中環區甲級寫字樓出租

財團申強拍跑馬地舊樓

市區豪宅用地供應稀少，近年不少財團紛紛轉向豪宅區舊樓「埋手」密密併購。由財團併購的跑馬地翠景樓舊樓、最新向土地審裁處申請強拍，以統一業權發展，目前持有逾83%業權，市場估值逾7.06億。

翠景樓位於黃泥涌道55至57號，據土地審裁處文件顯示，目前該財團持有約83.33%業權，餘下6個單位未成功收購，包括1個地鋪及5個住宅單位，地鋪市場估值約6213萬，5個住宅單位市場估值約1347萬至1796萬，市場對整個項目估值7.0681億。

市場估值逾7億

上述舊樓位於跑馬地黃泥涌道及雲地利道的豪宅地段，毗鄰馬場，落成後料不少單位可享馬場景，同時項目鄰近銅鑼灣核心商業地段，極具重建價值。現址為一幢樓高13層的商住物業，地下為商鋪，樓上為住宅，該幢舊樓早於1967年落成入伙，至今樓齡約55年。

文件顯示，根據該舊樓分割契據 (Deed Poll) 地盤面積約6646方呎，惟據今年6月調查顯示，上址地盤面積約6371方呎，若以地積比率5倍重建發展，可建總樓面約31855方呎。

持有83%業權

除上述項目外，該舊樓毗鄰亦有不少舊樓獲發展商收購，其中黃泥涌道59至61號愉華大廈，今年初錄14宗買賣，包括12伙住宅及2個地鋪，合共以4.68億成交，當中住宅成交價由約2408萬至約2931萬，平均呎價約3.1萬，涉及買賣金額約達3.188億。

至於黃泥涌道63至65號安美大廈早前亦錄19宗成交，包括16個住宅單位及3個鋪位，總成交額約4.12億，當中住宅成交價1156.3萬至2153.8萬，呎價約2.86萬至3.45萬，鋪位成交價由2025萬至1.15億，最貴一個鋪位為地下B鋪及地庫，建築面積約2400方呎。

資料顯示，土地審裁處年初至今共接獲17宗強拍申請，對比去年全年的16宗多出1宗。

(星島日報)

Covid, rate hikes and economy weigh on secondary market

Worries on interest rate hikes, the economy and the Covid pandemic, as well as competition from the primary market dragged down weekend transactions in 10 major housing estates to a four-week low.

The data from property agencies showed that only nine transactions were recorded in the 10 tracked housing estates during the past weekend, down 55 percent from 20 deals recorded over the previous weekend.

The number of estates that went without a deal also rose to six over the past two days, including Kornhill Gardens in Quarry Bay, South Horizons in Ap Lei Chau, Mei Foo Sun Chuen, City One Shatin, Metro City in Tseung Kwan O, and Caribbean Coast in Tung Chung.

A property agent said that home viewings had plummeted with daily new Covid infections rising past the 8,000 mark in the city and it was possible that the Hong Kong government may tighten social distancing curbs again, which would further impact viewings.

Also, potential buyers in the secondary market were adopting a wait-and-see policy amid interest rate hikes, while developers were drawing more home buyers with low prices in the primary market.

However, another property agent said that transactions in the secondary market would rebound if sellers kept reducing their asking prices, though deals for new homes would continue to dominate the market in the short term.

Meanwhile, the primary market continued to sizzle with Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016) revealing it had sold 1,538 homes at Novo Land in Tuen Mun and cashed in a total of HK$9.4 billion so far.

After selling all 170 flats in price lists and three homes by tender for a total of HK$1.03 billion on Saturday, the developer has cleared 95 percent of the stock in phase 1 of Novo Land since it launched sales at the end of July.

SHKP said it has applied for presale consent for phase 2B of the project to offer 729 flats, most of which are one- and two-bedroom units.

Andy Chan Hon-lun, the developer's real estate agency general manager, said sales of phase 2 are expected to be launched by the end of this year.

(The Standard)

Hong Kong home prices hit lowest level in more than 2 years, may lose another 10 per cent amid rising interest rates

Home prices fell 1.6 per cent in July and have dropped 4.5 per cent this year, according to the government’s index

Prices could sink an additional 10 per cent this year amid buyer hesitancy linked to interest rates, analysts say

Hong Kong home prices fell by 1.6 per cent in July, sinking to a nearly two-and-a-half-year low amid rising interest rates and Covid-19 rules that continue to weigh on the city’s economy and the property market.

The trend is likely to continue, with one analyst predicting prices could drop as much as another 10 per cent through the rest of the year.

The government’s index of overall home prices in the city, released on Monday by the Rating and Valuation Department, dropped to 376.1 in July from 382.4 in June.

So far this year, home prices have tumbled 4.5 per cent, and the July reading is only slightly above the 373.4 recorded in February 2020. July was also the third consecutive month that prices of lived-in homes declined.

The Hong Kong economy slipped into a recession in the second quarter, contracting by 1.4 per cent after slumping by 3.9 per cent in the previous quarter.

With Hong Kong’s current Covid-19 restrictions, including a mandatory hotel quarantine for international arrivals, likely to remain in force, home prices are also likely to remain depressed for the rest of the year.

“We expect the index to continue to bottom out in August to September,” a property agent said. “Our view is that residential prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term – in the upcoming two to three months – but it would resume positive growth once the market has absorbed the negative news associated with the interest rate hike.”

The agent expects that new home prices to remain steady now, but said the secondary mass residential market is likely to decline between 3 per cent and 5 per cent by the end of the year.

Mortgage payments linked to the Hibor, or Hong Kong interbank rate – the rate banks charge each other for borrowing money – have risen since the US Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in March.

Earlier this month, HSBC, one of Hong Kong’s note-issuing banks, raised the cap for its Hibor-linked home loans to 2.75 per cent from 2.5 per cent for new applications. Standard Chartered, another note-issuing bank in Hong Kong, followed suit.

As the city’s prime lending rate is tipped to follow the interbank rate and rise for the first time in four years, potential homebuyers are likely to hold off on purchasing homes.

“Given the uncertainties in the prime rate upward adjustment with the continuing Hibor hike, home price declines will continue,” another agent said. “We are expecting another 10 per cent decline for the rest of 2022.”

The agent noted that in September 2018 when Hong Kong’s prime rate increased for the first time in 10 years, adding about 0.125 per cent, home prices saw a 9 per cent drop by February 2019 and then bounced back by 11 per cent within three months thereafter.

“We will see a similar trend for the second half of 2022,” the agent said. “We will see that the market will respond to the prime rate increase, but from the first quarter next year, we will see the market rebound as long as there is no sixth wave [of Coronavirus infections],” she said.

The agent echoed this view, saying that after a short-term hit, the potential reopening of Hong Kong’s borders will buoy home prices over the next 12 months.

According to the Rating and Valuation Department, prices for flats with at least 752 square feet fell 1.7 per cent in July, while prices for flats smaller than that decreased by 0.13 per cent.

Meanwhile, home rents across the city rose by 0.6 per cent in July compared with the previous month. So far this year, however, rents have been on a downward trend, retreating by 2.1 per cent, official data showed.

(South China Morning Post)