今年以來，商廈市況一潭死水，比較去年價量齊跌，不過，上月市場氣氛突然高漲，連錄4宗「超級大刁」，最大宗的為九龍灣高銀金融國際中心全幢，涉資逾65億，大買賣亦包括新世界沽售長沙灣永康街商廈項目逾51%業權，作價近30.8億。

根據本報統計資料，今年以來，涉資逾億元的商廈暫錄15宗，涉資135億，比較去年同期23宗涉資173億，價量齊跌，而且，涉資金額集中於上個月，買賣氣氛突高漲，連錄4宗「超級大刁」，該4宗涉資約117億，金額佔今年以來整體買賣的87%，可見上月市場之暢旺。其中，九龍灣高銀金融國際中心全幢，該宗買賣至今未知買家身分，涉資逾65億，另一說法則指約70億。新世界亦剛於上周沽售長沙灣永康街商廈項目51%權益，買家為新加坡基金Ares SSG Capital Management，作價30.88億。

資深投資者羅守輝亦沽貨止賺，中環皇后大道中118及120號聯盛大廈全幢商廈，作價2.98億易手，平均呎價2.78萬，他於2002年7月以3038.8萬購入上址，持貨逾20年，帳面勁賺2.676億，升值近9倍，買家為杜家駒。還有，旭輝控股沽出炮台山英皇道101號及111號商廈60%股權，涉資13.4億，買家為宏安地產及荷蘭退休基金。

基金30.8購長沙灣商廈

有代理表示，疫市下，工商鋪當中以商廈「最傷」，上月大手買賣以低價主導，九龍灣高銀金融國際中心全幢，市傳以約70億易手，平均呎價只有7000多元，區內商廈平均呎價逾萬元，若該成交屬實，無疑對區內商廈市場大力地「踩了一腳」，更市況雪上加霜；中環聯盛大廈全幢商廈呎價2.98萬，亦屬低水平，項目屬於銀座式商廈，亦屬疫市下受影響的項目。

代理：低價成主流

該代理又說，綜觀上月4宗大買賣，並非市場上主流，目前，分散業權的甲廈交投淡靜，原因是商廈買家一般並非用家，而是投資者居多，在持續疫市下，商廈出租率不理想，連核心區中環空置率亦高達9%至10%，整體市場空置存量多達1000多萬呎，明年更有機會逾2000萬方呎，創歷來新高，令投資者卻步。

(星島日報)

更多高銀金融國際中心出租樓盤資訊請參閱：高銀金融國際中心出租

更多九龍灣區甲級寫字樓出租樓盤資訊請參閱：九龍灣區甲級寫字樓出租

赤柱豪宅地王估值逾百億

政府日前公布今季賣地計畫，將推出3幅住宅地，其中2幅更屬百億豪宅地王，當中最矚目為赤柱環角道豪宅地，可建總樓面逾48萬方呎，是該區有大型新供應，並季內屬百億地王之一，該地綜合市場估值介乎約168.1億至206.5億，每方呎估值約3.5萬至4.3萬。

每呎約3.5萬至4.3萬

上述地皮為赤柱環角道豪宅地 (鄉郊建屋地段第1204號)，鄰近舂坎角一帶的豪宅物業，如昭陽花園及壁如花園等。項目地盤面積約25.51萬方呎，涉及可建總樓面約48.02萬方呎，估計可提供約650伙，是區內近年最大型的地皮新供應，料日後可發展規模較大的豪宅屋苑。綜合市場估值，上述地皮估值介乎約168.1億至206.5億，每方呎估值約3.5萬至4.3萬，有力問鼎百億地王寶座。

資料顯示，對上一次批出的同區賣地表地皮，為建灝於2016年以28.11億投得的赤柱黃麻角道128號項目，以該地可建總樓面22.6萬方呎計，當時每方呎樓面地價約12436元；意味該區相隔6年再有新供應。

有測量師表示，上述估值過百億地王發展規模大，比山頂文輝道還要大，而項目屬於豪宅地段，料大部分單位享有海景，由於豪宅單位往往需要時間消化，投資期較長，相信入標的發展商或財團不多，料在目前市況下出價必然保守。

另一測量師指出，由於地盤面積大，並且位處豪宅地段，而且在加息後推出，認為該地皮可以成功出售，相信成交價具指標性作用，亦反應發展商對豪宅市況走勢看法。

(星島日報)

Confidence in Fan Ling buying queue

Henderson Land Development (0012) yesterday sold 46 of 143 flats on the price list for its second round of sales at One Innovale-Bellevue in Fan Ling.

The 143 homes, ranging from 228 to 501 square feet and covering studios and one-bedroom, two-bedroom and three-bedroom flats, were being sold at discounted prices of HK$3.33 million to HK$7.13 million, or HK$13,681 to HK$17,137 per square foot.

There were also 12 homes for sale by tender.

One potential buyer said he was optimistic about the future development of the Northern Metropolis, and he was also cheered by moves to do away with quarantine rules and cuts in interest rate stress testing.

So he had decided to lay out more than HK$6 million to purchase a three-bedroom flat that would be for personal use.

About 80 percent of the hopeful buyers were people born after 1990, according to a property agency.

The agency also said that people who bought flats for themselves to live in accounted for about 80 percent of the purchasers while the rest were buying for long-term investment.

The agency also expects that after the completion of the project rents will reach about HK$45 per square foot, with a yield of more than 3 percent. Another agent agreed the buying mood had improved with the easing of quarantine rules last week and the cut of the interest rate stress testing requirement for property mortgage lending

Although the number of transactions in the primary market last month was just 602, a half-year low, the agent added that he expected the SAR administration's continuing measures to boost the local economy would help the property market.

As social activities pick up and market sentiment recovers, he estimates there will be 1,500 transactions in the primary market this month.

But the other agency is less upbeat about the secondary market, predicting it could be reporting 6,800 transactions for the third quarter, marking a low point over 15 quarters. That is seen with the secondary market being weak due to the impact of the pandemic and the interest rate hikes.

Transactions in the third quarter decreased by 37.3 percent quarter on quarter, and their total value was about HK$57 billion. That was also a drop of 41 percent compared with HK$96.5 billion in the second quarter.

The agency added that the impact of the government's relaxation of quarantine measures and the lowering of interest rate stress testing requirement for property mortgage lending last month would be reflected in transactions at the end of October.

On a more positive note, another property agency counted 99 transactions involving shops in August. That was 4 percent better than July, when there were 95 transactions.

(The Standard)

Hong Kong property: why the end of quarantine will not end the pressure on rentals market, with resident departures still a concern

End of quarantine will help city get back to normal but analysts say the move may only provide limited support for struggling rental market

The city’s property sector has to contend with a slowing economy, a stock market fall, rising inflation, higher interest rates and resident departures

Investment professional Eva Wu, a British national, has terminated her rental contract in Hong Kong ahead of flying back to the UK in December for a long holiday.

The small flat, located at Mountain View Mansion in the busy Wan Chai area, measures 283 sq ft and has a rent of HK$11,000 (US$1,401) a month. Wu will rent another flat on her return in February, and given the recent downward trend in rents as more expats leave the city for good after years of strict Covid-19 restrictions, she is hoping for a better deal.

“There has really been quite an impact [on rents]. Many people made a decision at the beginning of the year to leave, heading off to places like Singapore,” said Wu. “However, there may be fewer [leaving] now after the need for hotel quarantine was axed.”

From September 26, overseas travellers will no longer be confined to hotel rooms for quarantine upon arrival after Hong Kong finally ended some of the world’s toughest travel restrictions, in a step aimed at reconnecting the isolated financial centre with the world.

While the change will help the bustling city get back to normal, analysts say the move may only provide limited support for Hong Kong’s struggling rental market, which may not fully recover until all restrictions are lifted and the mainland border reopened.

Hong Kong’s rents are currently expected to fall 5 to 10 per cent by the year-end, according to analysts, after years of breakneck growth before the pandemic hit.

“In terms of the property market, [the end of quarantine] will not alter overall sentiment,” a property agent said.

“It will help stem an outflow of people and talent,” the agent said. “[But] we will not see significant increases in expats until mid-to-late 2023 as we need to see all restrictions and mask-wearing requirements lifted.”

The city’s property sector has had to contend with a slowing economy, a stock market fall, rising inflation, higher interest rates and the knock-on effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has upset global supply chains. But it is the wave of departing residents, fed up with strict pandemic restrictions and Hong Kong’s enactment of a new national security law in 2020 among other personal reasons, that has been a major hit.

Once a go-to destination for high-flying expatriates, more than 113,000 residents – including many expatriates who had earned permanent resident status – left Hong Kong in the 12 months through June, according to government data. That is about double the population loss for the previous year, creating a talent shortage in the financial hub.

The official index for overall housing rents has declined 1.6 per cent on year to 179.7 in August, according to data from the Rating and Valuation Department. It has slid 10.2 per cent since the peak of 200.1 in August 2019.

For example, in the Central and Western district – which houses the financial centre – rents have fallen by around 15 per cent from the high in 2019 because of emigration, a poor economy and an interest rate upcycle, another agent said.

In broad terms, rents are about 5 per cent cheaper than last year, according to another agent. The agent added that there was a smaller rise in rents over the summer – typically the high season – and that he had seen less than half the number of expats looking to rent than in previous years.

“The market has fewer corporate tenants”, meaning those that typically have a housing allowance from their firms, the agent said. “Compared to previous years property owners are worried about the emigration wave and the early termination of leases. So there have been bigger discounts.”

Another agent expected that rents to fall 5 to 10 per cent by the end of the year along with the general decline in home prices.

For instance, at Heng Fa Chuen located in the Eastern district of Chai Wan, one flat measuring 659 sq ft was last week leased at HK$19,500, 22 per cent less than the asking rent, after being on the market for over four months, according to information from another property agency.

Meanwhile, an market index on housing rents, which surveys agents on their market outlook, sank 36.5 per cent from late April to 38.52 for the week ended October 2, reflecting a wider rental market adjustment, according to an agency.

After the summer high season, when mainland students typically flock to the city before school semesters begin in September, the number of leases declined. City One Shatin saw only about 60 leases in September, down about half from 118 leases in August, according to the agency.

Meanwhile, rents in Kowloon have fallen for five consecutive months, according to the agency. Laguna City in Lam Tin saw rents fall the most in the past five months, down 4.8 per cent to HK$28.1 per sq ft. There is also expected to be an increase in the supply of rental listings in Kowloon with the completion of more large housing estates.

“In the past, landlords were very aggressive in increasing rents, causing tenants to turn to other units,” an agent said. “It has not been like that in the past two years. Instead, rent has been reduced to keep the tenant.”

And the pressure on luxury housing rents has been relatively higher than that for the mass market, another agent said. Anxious owners are now offering discounts and longer rent-free periods, the agent said.

“For the expat market, we have seen more departures than arrivals in recent months,” the agent said. However, we do think the peak for departures has passed, with the number falling from a few months ago, the agent added.

For listings with rents above HK$80,000 a month or for large units above 2,000 sq ft, demand remains weak, the agent said.

Investment professional Eva Wu still expects the market to remain weak, and is hopeful of reducing her own rent.

“It’s difficult, there is no reason to ask people to return after working [elsewhere] for just a few months,” said Wu.

“Unless the border with the mainland reopens … there will not be much of a rebound if we simply rely on returning expats.”

(South China Morning Post)