Analysts forecast up to 5 per cent price fall or rise amid oversupply, falling interest rates and improving stock market performance

The outlook for Hong Kong’s residential market is divided among analysts, with one consultancy forecasting prices to fall amid oversupply concerns, while two others expect prices to rise because of falling interest rates and improved stock market performance.

A property agency expects home prices to fall by up to 5 per cent, even another property agency see gains of as much as 5 per cent.

The first agency cited an estimated supply of 87,000 new flats, equivalent to 58 months of demand, by the end of 2025 as the main reason for its pessimism.

“In 2025, the primary challenge in the housing market is oversupply,” an agent said. “However, we must also consider the risks posed by the escalating US-China trade war and an uncertain interest rate outlook, which could impact the housing market.”

That supply is still higher than the average 51.3 months worth of new supply of flats from 2015 to 2021, when home prices broke one record after another, the agency said. The city’s lived-in home prices peaked in September 2021. Since 2022, the supply of new flats ranged between 78.2 and 101.6 months’ worth of demand, the agency added.

Hong Kong’s home prices rose for the first time in seven months in October, with a widely watched index gaining 0.62 per cent month on month. Meanwhile, home sales rose by more than a third in November to 6,298 units, the most since 8,551 in April and the second-highest for the year, according to official data. The value of these deals increased by 54 per cent to HK$57.3 billion (US$7.4 billion) from HK$37.3 billion in October.

While the figures point to an improving market, the recovery could prove to be short-lived, according to the agency, which noted that mass housing prices have fallen 6.4 per cent in the first 11 months of the year.

The agent said that the return of Donald Trump to the White House, limited China stimulus and the yuan’s weakness could further constrain property investments.

Given Trump’s professed economic plan, markets are anticipating a more inflationary environment in the US, leading to a pause in the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle.

“While cyclical factors such as interest rates, economic conditions and supply-demand cycles can only partially explain the drop, deep structural changes are reshaping market fundamentals and asset values,” the agent said. “However, if the influx of mainland Chinese capital exceeds expectations due to the anticipated [yuan] depreciation, the decline in home prices could be more moderate.”

Another property agency believes that the city’s property market is less likely to be affected by external factors.

Mass residential prices could rise by up to 5 per cent, another agent said.

“First-hand and second-hand transactions [next year] are expected to increase slightly to 55,000 to 58,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 10 to 15 per cent,” the agent said. “First-hand sales are expected to constitute 35 to 40 per cent of the total, potentially reaching the highest level since 2004.”

For another property agency, the trajectory of interest rates, as well as the stock market performance, will largely determine the direction of Hong Kong’s home prices next year.

“If interest rates continue to stay on a downward trend, and the stock market remains stable, we expect residential transaction volume will increase by 5 to 8 per cent to a level of 56,000 to 58,000 units,” another agent said.

This will support an overall price rebound of about 5 per cent, the agent added.

(South China Morning Post)

城大8.8億購尖東明輝中心基座 TOYOMALL沽貨平均呎價9754元

繼香港都會大學連購紅磡酒店及商廈自用，香港城市大學亦出手購入尖東明輝中心基座商場及寫字樓，作價8.8億，原業主為TOYOMALL，持貨逾30年帳面獲利逾1倍離場。

由TOYOMALL持有的尖東明輝中心基座商場及寫字樓，早於去年3月於市場放售，當時市場估值約16.8億至19.2億，消息人士透露，該項目獲多間教育機構洽購，最終剛由香港城市大學落實購入，作價8.8億，平均9754元，本報昨日聯絡城大，惟直至截稿時尚未聯絡得上。

料購入作自用

市場人士則透露，城大為出價最高買家，將自用物業，該院校目前在區內華懋廣場地庫設有專業進修學院，料日後遷至該自置物業，明輝中心基座擁有多個大型廣告位，廣收宣傳之效，加上物業位於核心區，有助該院校於招生及教學工作更加便利。

上址為明輝中心基座，涉及物業地庫、低層地下、地下．高層地下，以及1至3樓，樓高7層，總面積約90222方呎，疫情前市況高峰時業主意向價約27億，去年5月標售時，市場估值16.8億至19.2億，消息指，低價成交固然令買家開心，TOYOMALL亦樂於在淡市下套現，尋找其他投資機遇，現時若出租該基座商場，市值月租約230萬，對照成交價計算，回報只有3厘水平。

事實上，TOYOMALL早為「出售物業」作出部署，於2017年展開工程，為物業增設子彈觀光升降機、高清玻璃幕牆等，工程於2020年完成，羅守輝刻意不出租物業，他預期準買家以用家機會最高。

擁多個大型廣告位

該基座商場及寫字樓佔全幢明輝中心不分割份數超過50%，每層面積約10316至14477方呎，TOYOMALL早於1993年9月以4.33億購入上述物業，持貨31年帳面賺4.47億，物業升值約1.03倍。有代理指，過往尤其上世紀90年代，該物業屬區內地標。

現時若出租該基座商場，市值月租約230萬，對照成交價計算，回報只有3厘水平。

(星島日報)

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旺角太子道西全幢住宅易手 Owl Square等斥7351萬承接

有外資代理行表示，太子道西206及208號住宅部分現狀連約出售，作價約7351萬，買家Owl Square共居集團潘解頤、上市公司利駿集團主席陳洪楷及相關人士，1至14樓為住宅，配備升降機，是次售出16伙，實用面積共約13871方呎，平均呎價5300元，平均每個住宅460萬。預期重新分隔及翻新後，回報高達10厘以上，為集團增添新據點。

陳洪楷：屬私人投資

利駿集團主席陳洪楷表示，今年內牽頭共購入約3億，逾50伙住宅，包括柯士甸道108號、田灣登峰街、馬頭圍道96，旺角項目為今年第四度出手，屬私人投資，位於港鐵旺角東站旁，毗鄰加多利山傳統豪宅區。

(星島日報)