The private residential price index stood at 316 points in November, the lowest level since February 2017

Prices in 2024 will follow an ‘L shape’, dipping 3 to 5 per cent in the first half then stabilising, a property agent said

The housing market in Hong Kong continued to decline, with prices in November falling for the seventh month in a row to their lowest level in almost seven years, according to government data.

Property agents said house prices would continue to decline in December as the city’s slowing economy and high interest rates undercut demand.

The private residential price index stood at 316 points in November, the lowest level since February 2017 and a sharp drop from 322.4 points in October, according to the Rating and Valuation Department. The gauge has fallen every month since May, racking up a cumulative 10.78 per cent loss.

In the first 11 months of the year, property prices fell by 5.59 per cent.

Things have not improved this month, according to a property agent.

“Home prices in December continue to fall, making a full year decline of 7 per cent,” the agent said.

Property prices are down about 20.6 per cent from the market’s peak in September 2021.

Small units of below 431 square feet fell 3.47 per cent month on month in November, and were down 8.9 per cent in the first 11 this year.

The index of large residential units with a saleable area of at least 1,075 square feet dropped by 1.94 per cent month-on-month. In the first 11 months of this year, it fell by 6.17 per cent.

“The residential market is still being impacted by high interest rates, insufficient purchasing power and a high volume of unsold inventory,” another agent said.

“The adjustments of various stamp duties have had limited impact in boosting home prices and transaction volume.”

The agent was referring to a relaxation of stamp duties announced by Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu in his latest blueprint for the city in a bid to inject life back into the flagging market.

Lee said a special stamp duty, equivalent to 10 per cent of the home price, would be waived for owners reselling their property after two years, a reduction from the original three years.

The buyers’ stamp duty that applies to non-permanent residents, and for additional properties, was halved to 7.5 per cent from 15 per cent.

“We expect the home prices to drop 7 per cent this year,” the agent said. “The price trend for 2024 will be an L shape, dipping 3 to 5 per cent in the first half of the year and then staying relatively stable in the second half.”

While residential property prices are falling, rents continue to rise. They have risen for 10 consecutive months, with the residential rental index reaching 186.8 points in November, a monthly increase of 0.65 per cent.

That is the highest level in almost four years and represents a cumulative increase of 7.6 per cent in 10 months.

Another agent estimates that rents have increased 6.43 per cent for the whole of 2023.

The agent expects them to climb about 10 per cent next year, outperforming property prices, as interest rates are cut and with the prospect of the government announcing the withdrawal of market cooling measures in its 2024-25 budget.

Hong Kong may have seen the last of the interest rate hikes in the current cycle, sparing homebuyers higher borrowing costs, though analysts have warned this may not prevent house prices from slipping further.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) maintained its base rate at 5.75 per cent in December, after the US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and signalled that the historic monetary policy tightening engineered over the last two years may have ended.

The city’s de facto central bank has followed the Fed in lockstep since 1983 on interest rates policy under its linked exchange rate system to preserve the local currency peg to the US dollar.

(South China Morning Post)

代理行：明年工商舖交投料升30%

有本港代理行指，今年全年料錄3500宗工商舖成交，按年跌約20%，為有紀錄以來新低，料2024年市況先跌後靠穩，受惠投資移民政策推動，整體成交量達4700宗，按年大升30%，並以中細價盤源受追捧。

該行代理表示， 2023第四季截至12月21日，暫錄約151宗商舖買賣成交，較去年第四季下調約35％，預料今年第四季不足180宗，數字為繼2020年第一季後新低，2020年第一季共錄得約159宗水平。

受惠投資移民政策

本季總金額約43.48億，較去年第四季跌約12％，全年度商舖租賃宗數錄4125宗，與去年4065宗相若，租賃總金額4.8億，按年升約7％。

該行另一代理表示，今年第四季暫錄約339宗工商舖成交，總金額錄約43.83億，預測第四季總計將有近400宗成交，金額料約47億，宗數比較2022年第四季微減，金額相若。全年計算則暫錄約1888宗，總金額約219.45億，按年分別減約20%及近50%。

今年料3500宗按年跌20%

該行另一代理預測，經濟市道差、高息、市民外遊消費， 將令2024年第一季工商舖市場膠着觀望，但全年場危中有機，先跌後穩。

近期不少利好消息湧現，聯儲局表示有機會減息，政府最新投資移民計劃，容許非住宅物業包含其中，上限為1000萬，新政策將推動投資移民申請者入市，並以中細價物業最受惠，預料明年全年工商舖錄約4700宗買賣，金額見850億，工廈買賣走勢最強勁。

該代理認為，在高息環境下，首季買賣市場中有機，新投資移民政策為工商舖市況帶來曙光初露，預料買賣交投量有上升空間，明年第一季825宗水平，價格受限有下調空間，以舖位跌幅最大，民生區跌幅逾30%，但利好因素支持及放盤量逐漸消化，前景樂觀審慎。

(星島日報)

產業署大手購深水埗五地舖 涉資4680萬料作社福處所用途

政府於4年前的《財政預算案》中，宣布撥款200億購置60項物業，將設立130項社福設施。最新購入深水埗大南街新盤AVA 228地下5個地舖，作價4680萬，有機會作社福處所用途。

深水埗大南街AVA 228的5個地舖，分別為2、3、5、7及9號地舖，由產業署以4680萬承接，該5個舖位總面積3616方呎，呎價約12942元。

原業主為資深投資者盧華家族，亦是該廈發展商，AVA 228地下另外3個舖位，於2021年12月至2022年9月成功售出，呎價介乎約2.01萬至2.88萬，產業署今次購入的平均呎價，較1至2年前呎價低36%至55%。

平均呎價12942元

本報昨日分別就上述物業交易向產業署查詢，惟直至截稿前未獲回覆。市場消息則指出，料政府購入此物業，作社福處所用途，新樓消防等設施能夠符合要求，而且節省維修費用。

4年前的《財政預算案》中，政府宣布撥款200億購置60個物業，以設立130項社福設施，今年11月8日，勞工及福利局局長孫玉菡透露，暫已斥1.5億購入4項物業，曾接獲450個放盤，其中300個評估為「不適合」，包括不符合消防或無障礙通道要求。

社署過去4年購入4個物業，分別位於深水埗區、中西區、東區和觀塘區，用於設立家長∕親屬資源中心及自閉症人士支援中心，以及提供到校學前康復服務，4個物業佔目標的6.7%，動用款項僅佔當局預算0.75%。

市場消息指，過往購入社福設施物業，包括觀塘中海日升中心「樓上舖」，作價4600萬；2021年底以3650萬購入長沙灣單幢樓尚南天1樓1號及2號舖連外牆，面積約3600方呎，上述3個物業涉資1.575 億，其中尚南天物業已作社福設施，現由香港基督教服務處使用，並作旗下匯愛家長資源中心。

有代理表示，佐敦吳松街25至27號地舖，建築面積約550方呎，意向價約2,000萬元，平均呎價約36,364元，該物業連約放售，現時租予泰式餐廳，租期至2025年，月租約6萬元，以叫價計算，料可回報3.6厘。劉氏表示，該物業門闊約18呎，面向北海街，鄰近知名廟街市集，吸引遊客慕名而至。

AVA 228地下另外3個舖位，於2021年12月至2022年9月成功售出，呎價介乎約2.01萬至2.88萬。

(星島日報)