Goldman Sachs forecast that home prices in Hong Kong will fall by 15 percent this year and another 15 percent in 2023.
That came as more shop deals were recorded in Central, Tsim Sha Tsui and Causeway Bay.
Hong
Kong's property market has dropped sharply by about 8 percent since the
year, mainly due to the mortgage-related one-month Hong Kong interbank
offered rate soaring by 250 basis points recently and local banks
raising their prime rates.
Based
on expectations that the Federal Reserve is set to raise interest rates
to 1.5 percent in the first three months of next year, Goldman Sachs
believes there are downside risks to the Hong Kong property market.
Amid
expectations of a reopening of the border with the mainland, there was a
clutch of transactions involving shops in Central, Tsim Sha Tsui and
Causeway Bay, including the Luen Shing Building in Central sold by
veteran property investor Francis Law Sau-fai for HK$275 million, an
appreciation of eight times in 20 years.
Law bought it in 2002 for about HK$30.39 million and held it for about 20 years, making a paper profit of about HK$245 million.
A
shop owned by veteran property investor Choi Chi-chung in Mei Foo Sun
Chuen was sold to a southeast Asian buyer for HK$13 million, or HK$8,491
per square foot.
With its monthly rent being HK$35,000, the yield is about 3.2 percent.
Since
2019, the vacancy rate of shops has gradually increased, with the total
exceeding 140 football pitches due to the huge pressure piled on by
rents.
For its part, the
Land Registry received 4,835 notifications of sales and purchase
transactions in September, a drop of 7.7 percent from August and 34.7
percent year on year.
Total turnover was HK$34.8 billion, down 62 percent month on month and 48 percent year on year.
In the primary market, Wetland Seasons Bay
phase 3, a Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016) project in Tin Shui Wai, has
received about 900 checks for its third round of sales, or an
oversubscription of over 19 times for the 45 units on the list.
(The Standard)
Hong Kong home prices could nosedive 30 per cent through 2023 as interest rates repel buyers, Goldman Sachs forecasts
The American investment bank issues a pessimistic revision of an earlier forecast that predicted a 20 per cent decline
High
mortgage rates will continue to reduce affordability and keep investors
away without better economic conditions or more policy support, the
bank says
Hong
Kong home prices are set to plummet by as much as 30 per cent by the
end of 2023, as sharply increasing interest rates continue to make homes
less affordable and repel investors from the market, according to
Goldman Sachs.
The
American investment bank, after revising its forecast downwards on
Tuesday, now expects prices to fall by 15 per cent in both 2022 and
2023, compared with year-end 2021 levels, followed by no change in 2024.
It had earlier predicted that prices would fall by a total of 20 per
cent through 2024.
“This
view change is due to a faster-than-expected rise in and higher
medium-term level of Hibor, and hence mortgage rates,” the bank said in a
report, referring to the Hong Kong interbank offered rate. “This would
continue to pressure affordability, [and] keep investors away from the
market unless macro or policy becomes more supportive.”
Hibor
is the interest rate banks charge each other for borrowing money. The
one-month Hibor has soared to over 2.5 per cent – the highest level in
more than 2.5 years.
Goldman
Sachs’ forecast came after prices of lived-in homes fell by 2.3 per
cent in August to their lowest level in three-and-a-half years,
according to government data.
The
Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has lifted its base interest rate
five times this year to 3.5 per cent, a 14-year high, in lockstep with
the US Federal Reserve. Commercial banks including HSBC and Bank of
China (Hong Kong) raised their prime rates to a four-year high.
The HKMA also asked banks to lower the threshold on interest-rate stress testing for mortgage lending.
Goldman
Sachs noted that home prices have dropped by about 8 per cent
year-to-date due to the rapid rise in the one-month Hibor and the recent
prime rate hike, which came on September 22.
“With
another 150 basis points of Federal [Reserve] rate hikes expected by
the first quarter of 2023, we expect further downside risks to the
residential property market, which could mean continued price falls and
low transaction activity,” the report said. “We believe a 30 per cent
price correction is more likely.”
Other
factors include a supply of properties that is gradually rising with
higher plot ratios for farmland and the release of more public supply.
Meanwhile, the city’s border with mainland China is largely closed and
an emigration wave has led to the biggest decline in the number of
households in Hong Kong in 25 years, according to the report.
This
supply-demand dynamic would not be threatening, in and of itself, for
residential property prices, but comes at the same time rates are rising
and household incomes remain stagnant, exaggerating the pressure on
prices, the report said.
Meanwhile,
the total number of property transactions, including residential,
commercial and industrial properties as well as parking spaces, fell 7.7
per cent month over month and 34.7 per cent year over year in
September, recording a six-month low of 4,835, according to data from
the Land Registry.
Transaction
value hit a 32-month-low of HK$34.8 billion (US$4.4 billion), down 62
per cent from August and 48 per cent from September 2021.
Property transactions are likely to hit a historic low of 65,000 this year,
according to a forecast by a property agency. That would be the lowest
level since 1996, according to government records. The previous record
low of 70,503 registrations was reported in 2013.
A
lack of macroeconomic and policy catalysts has kept investors on the
sidelines, with the next key event being Hong Kong Chief Executive John
Lee Ka-chiu’s policy address on October 19, the Goldman Sachs report
said.
(South China Morning Post)
Li Ka-shing’s CK Asset pays US$586 million for Hong Kong land parcel subject to government’s minimum flat-size rule
The
plot of land on Castle Peak Road sold for HK$3,522 per square foot, far
below the HK$6,500 it was expected to fetch in an earlier failed tender
An
April tender for the parcel – the first subject to the government’s
minimum flat size requirement – failed to attract any bids that met the
reserve price
CK
Asset won a tender for a parcel of land in Tuen Mun for a price lower
than market expectations after an earlier tender – the first subject to
the government’s minimum flat-size requirement – failed to attract any
satisfactory bids in April.
The
flagship developer of tycoon Li Ka-shing’s family won the parcel on
Castle Peak Road – Tai Lam, Tuen Mun in northwestern Hong Kong for
HK$4.6 billion (US$586 million), the Lands Department said on Wednesday.
Henderson Land Development Company, Sino Land, Grand Ming Group Holdings and Sun Hung Kai Properties also bid for the parcel.
The
price translates to just HK$3,522 per square foot, “slightly lower than
the lower limit of market expectations”, according to a surveyor.
When
it was first launched in April, another surveyor valued the land at
HK$6,000 to HK$6,500 per square foot, or HK$7.8 billion to HK$8.5
billion. In July, the surveyor slashed the valuation to HK$5,000 to
HK$5,500 per square foot, or HK$6.5 billion to HK$7.2 billion.
“The
size of the land and the amount of investment are relatively large,”
the surveyor said. The land can yield 1.31 million sq ft of gross floor
area and at least 2,000 flats, Lam said.
The tender in April attracted only five bids, none of which met the government’s reserve price.
The now successful tender shows that the government is adapting to
market changes and adjusting the reserve price according to market
conditions, which can also ensure future housing supply, the surveyor
added.
“Coupled with the recent market conditions, developers are expected to be more cautious in their bids,” the surveyor said.
Last December, the Hong Kong government set a 280 sq ft minimum size for flats built on government land.
The
relaunch of the Tuen Mun site “in a short time” after the original
tender failed, “reflected the government’s determination to let the
people live in bigger homes”, think tank Our Hong Kong Foundation said
in July.
Chinese
President Xi Jinping instructed John Lee Ka-chiu, Hong Kong’s Chief
Executive, on the 25th anniversary of the city’s handover to China, that
his administration should “strive to deliver” what “the people of Hong
Kong desire – a better life, a bigger flat, more business start-up
opportunities, better education and better elderly care”.
(South China Morning Post)
尖沙嘴港威大廈每呎逾45元租出
近期尖沙嘴甲廈連錄承租個案，其中，港威大廈三座-保誠保險大廈高層01至02及14室，面積約4300方呎，意向呎租53元，市場消息指以逾45元承租，月租19.35萬。另外，港威大廈六座高層08至09室，建築面積約3199方呎，亦以每呎約40元租出，月租約12.8萬。港威大廈一座低層10至11室，建築面積約2700方呎，以約38元租出，月租約10.26萬，同廈中層04及06室，建築面積約4944方呎，以每呎約39元租出，月租19.28萬。
區內海洋中心亦連錄承租，中層03室，面積約1076方呎，以約36元租出，月租3.87萬，中層10及11室，面積約4950方呎，以35元租出，月租約17.33萬，海洋中心低層01至03室，面積約6162方呎，則以約33元租出，月租約20.33萬。
海洋中心每月3.87萬承租
有代理表示，港威大廈地點好，大厦質素及條件佳，相對整個海港城，該廈質素最高，亦最受捧，疫市下租金硬淨，視乎不同座向、大小及不同質素單位，租金較2018年高位跌幅只有5%至10%；至於海洋中心，樓齡較高，租金相宜。該代理又說，上月九龍寫字樓租務保持平穩，買賣則錄得萎縮。
(星島日報)
更多港威大廈寫字樓出租樓盤資訊請參閱：港威大廈寫字樓出租
更多海洋中心寫字樓出租樓盤資訊請參閱：海洋中心寫字樓出租
更多尖沙咀區甲級寫字樓出租樓盤資訊請參閱：尖沙咀區甲級寫字樓出租
財團每呎1.5萬收購黃大仙舊樓 涉10幢物業 住宅總金額涉4.8億
市區土地資源有限，財團均面對一地難求的局面，近年不少發展商變陣，透過舊樓收購藉以申請強拍增加土儲；舊樓林立的黃大仙未來發展潛力亦看高一綫，近年該區舊樓更掀起併購潮，未來區內勢將「大變天」；本報獲悉，黃大仙銀鳳街33至59號一列舊樓群被財團吼中，並於月前接觸業主並出價收購，據了解每方呎收購價大約1.5萬至1.6萬不等，單計住宅部分涉及收購金額約4.8億至5.12億。
本港土地供應短缺，市區「靚地」更是賣少見少，近年有不少財團轉向舊樓埋手，密密併購發展，上述銀鳳街33至59號一列舊樓群，涉及約10幢樓高5至6層的商住舊樓，地下為商鋪，樓上為住宅樓層；最近獲財團出價收購，據了解，該財團以每方呎1.5萬至1.6萬不等向小業主提出收購價建議。上述銀鳳街舊樓群涉及最少約76個住宅單位，單位面積由263至535方呎，住宅部分總樓面大約3.19萬方呎，以每方呎1.5萬至1.6萬收購價計，單計住宅部分涉及金額至少約4.8億至5.12億，另有約15個地鋪。
涉最少約76個住宅
銀鳳街33至59號舊樓群，早於1970年至1973年之間落成，至今約49至52年樓齡；若將來透過合併地盤重建發展，地盤面積擴展至約1.14萬方呎，如以地積比9倍作重建發展，涉及可建總樓面約10.34萬方呎，是近年市區中罕見的大型地盤。
該批舊樓群位於竹園銀鳳街及環鳳街交界，屬大單邊位置，項目鄰近有不少購物及娛樂設施，如黃大仙中心、鳳德商場、竹園街市、雙鳳街街市，同時鄰近竹園體育館、鳳德公園等；交通方面，鄰近港鐵黃大仙站，步行前往約11分鐘步程，而且毗鄰亦有多條巴士及小巴路綫行走，交通及生活配套便利，極具重建價值。
可建總樓面10萬呎
參考鄰近私樓平均呎價，如區內指標屋苑現崇山目前平均呎價約1.74萬，該屋苑1座低層A室新近以1409萬售出，屬面積794方呎的3房單位，呎價約1.77萬；而鑽嶺一個低層D室的1房單位以448萬易手，以面積211方呎計，呎價約2.1萬。
另外滙豪山中層A室單位，新近以660萬易手，以面積439方呎計，呎價約15034元；而同區居屋翠竹花園9座中層E室，面積484方呎，兩房戶，新近以525萬 (自由市場價) 成交，呎價約10847元。
有業內人士指，近年市區新供應少，過往推出招標的市區用地均面對激烈競爭，入場門檻高，近年不少財團已轉向具重建價值的舊樓埋手，其中舊樓林立的黃大仙是一個熱門地區之一，據了解，現時已有不少財團插旗收購。
而且目前整體樓市氣氛未如理想，加上成交量相對淡靜，樓價亦有所回軟之際，業主往往需要減價沽貨，認為財團在舊樓收購時，不排除有部分小業主叫價態度會軟化。
(星島日報)
市區土地供應少區內掀收購熱
近年黃大仙區發展步伐加快，由舊區漸蛻變成新晉商住社區，不少私人財團密密向舊樓埋手併購，單計宏安地產已成功透過強拍途徑統一區內2個舊樓項目。
事實上，毗鄰的鳴鳳街及環鳳街一帶舊樓近年收購活動活躍，宏安地產已成功透過強拍途徑統一區內2個舊樓項目，包括今年2月以底價2.57億統一飛鳳街31至41號舊樓業權，連同該公司收購的飛鳳街45號合併發展；值得留意的是，上述飛鳳街31至45號舊樓已於今年3月獲屋宇署批出建築圖則，獲批建1幢樓高19層高的商住項目，住宅部分涉及可建總樓面約7.8萬方呎，另有1.5萬方呎非住宅樓面，料提供約250伙。
飛鳳街項目料提供250伙
該公司去年亦以底價8.05億統一鳴鳳街26至48號舊樓業權，上址由3個地段組成，包括26至32A號乾豐大廈、34及36號鳳凰樓，以及38至46號舊樓，總地盤面積約9630方呎，可建樓面面積約8.67萬方呎。
除本地發展商收購外，內地發展商武夷集團繼2017年底以1.12億購入鳴鳳街18至20號全幢舊樓後，今年2月再下一城成功併購毗鄰的22至24號全數業權，預料該兩個地段地盤合併後面積約3600方呎，現規劃為「住宅 (甲類) 1」用途，地積比率9倍計，涉及可建總面積約3.24萬方呎的商住物業。
除財團併購外，市建局行政總監韋志成今年5月初曾指，加強市區更新工作，市建局在九龍城、黃大仙等多個舊區開展地區規劃研究，制訂合適的市區更新計畫。
(星島日報)
長實逾46億低價 奪屯門限呎地
樓面呎價3522返6年前 趙國雄：投資額逾130億
長實 (01113) 動作頻頻，上周沽出半山豪宅後，隨即以逾46億元購入屯門「限呎」住宅地，每平方呎樓面地價3,522元，低於市場估值下限，較兩年前同區地價低逾4成，重返6年前地價水平。長實預計總額超逾130億元，並表示對香港地產市道前景極具信心。
今次批出的屯門青山公路大欖段「限呎」住宅地，今年4月曾經招標，惟最終未及政府底價而流標，今次重推於上周截收5份標書。地政總署昨日公布，地皮最終由長實以46.01億元投得，每平方呎樓面地價約3,522元，較市場估值下限約48億元 (每平方呎樓面地價約3,700元)，低出約5%，稍遜於市場預期。
指對港地產前景 極具信心
掃管笏對上一次批出的地皮，為佳兆業 (01638) 於2020年，以每平方呎6,005元投得屯門第48區地皮，今次地價相較低出4成。若果跟比鄰地皮的 OMA by the Sea，在2016年6月由永泰地產 (00369) 以每平方呎約3,343元投得相若，可見今次地價重回約6年前水平。
長實執行董事趙國雄稱，集團一直積極參與投地，全因對香港地產市道前景極具信心。他又提到，地皮面積大、建築上有一定難度，且涉及的單位數量多，估計連同地價及發展費用計算，投資總額料超過130億元。至於長實與新地 (00016) 合作的飛揚，項目於2018年底以逾17.31億元完成補地價，每平方呎補地價約4,990元。
估計落成後 呎價賣逾1.36萬
若果以總投資額130億元計算，計及「10%發水樓面」、8成實用率等因素，項目預計落成後實用呎價約1.36萬元便有合理利潤，參考EPRC經濟地產庫資料，地皮周邊近半年平均成交實用呎價約1.36萬至1.63萬元，而長實旗下飛揚近期平均呎價則約1.54萬元。
有測量師直言，鑑於地皮位處斜坡，而且規模大，加上中間設有油站，增加日後發展時的困難及成本，相信是次售價已經反映該等因素，形容成交價為「筍價」。該測量師又直言，是次長實中標與上周沽出半山西部項目的關連不大，相信長實「低價就買」。
地皮上周接獲5份標書，與今年4月首次招標相同，其餘4家入標財團，包括恒地 (00012)、新地、信置 (00083) 及佳明 (01271)，全數以獨資形式競投。
(經濟日報)
長實換貨高賣低買 雙贏補土儲
長實 (01113) 在短短一周使出「連環技」一買一賣，將半山豪宅盤沽貨，換貨低價吸納屯門限呎地，將建新界上車盤；這邊廂在樓市高峰期鎖定利潤套現，那邊廂則補充了土地儲備，維持貨如輪轉的策略。
長實近年在地產市道再次變得活躍，大約每半年就有不少大手買賣。先在買地方面，由2020年起至今5度投得官地及市建局項目，合共涉資逾265億元，單是今年8個月內，已經斥逾百億元投得土瓜灣項目，及今次屯門掃管笏地皮。
近期策略 低吸上車大型地皮
至於沽貨方面，長實單是今年3月沽出倫敦商廈，以及上周以208億沽出半山西部豪宅21 BORRETT ROAD項目，共套現達332億元，不但成功鎖定了項目利潤，亦對其現金流有相當幫助，單是沽出的兩個大型項目，已經足夠抵銷過去幾年買地開支。
長實近期的策略，是沽出貴重的重磅項目套現，然後趁低吸納地價較低，並主攻上車的大型地皮，例如今次屯門大欖限呎地，以及觀塘安達臣道的「港人首置盤」地皮，兩地每平方呎樓面地價均約3,000多至4,000多元，地皮均主攻上車客源，可見長實重回過往「貨如輪轉」、薄利多銷的營運模式。
據一間代理行統計，上季第三季新盤成交量共錄3,560宗，9成屬於金額在1,000萬元以下上車盤，而逾千萬元以上成交僅364宗，按季減少7成，反映上車購買力主導市場。
(經濟日報)
星共享空間 中環據點末季開幕
新加坡共享工作空間品牌The Great Room，早前預租中環長江集團中心2.1萬平方呎，將於今年第四季開幕。
據了解，全新的工作間設有22間私人辦公室，包括兩個企業辦公室 (Enterprise Units)，而私人辦公室中的會籍由1.55萬元起，而流動辦公桌 (Hot Desk) 每月會籍則由3,600元起。The Great Room創辦人及行政總裁洪可珈 (Jaelle Ang) 指，香港為品牌在亞太區業務擴展策略中非常重要的跳板，未來將放眼悉尼、上海、北京及東京等地。
(經濟日報)
更多長江集團中心寫字樓出租樓盤資訊請參閱：長江集團中心寫字樓出租
更多中環區甲級寫字樓出租樓盤資訊請參閱：中環區甲級寫字樓出租
羅守輝2.75億沽中環聯盛大廈
銀行雖然加息，但市場仍不乏全幢物業大手成交。據土地註冊處資料，中環皇后大道中110至120號聯盛大廈全幢，最近成功售出，作價2.75億元。
據了解，原業主為資深投資者羅守輝，於2002年以約3039萬元購入該廈，持貨約20年轉手，賬面獲利約2.45億元，物業升值約8.06倍。
聯盛大廈樓高約11層，鄰近中環中心，地盤面積約1127方呎，總樓面面積約10704方呎；按上述成交價計算，呎價25691元。
(信報)
更多中環中心寫字樓出售樓盤資訊請參閱：中環中心寫字樓出售
更多中環區甲級寫字樓出售樓盤資訊請參閱：中環區甲級寫字樓出售
更多中環中心寫字樓出租樓盤資訊請參閱：中環中心寫字樓出租
更多中環區甲級寫字樓出租樓盤資訊請參閱：中環區甲級寫字樓出租
羅守輝「減磅」放售12乙廈物業 總意向價逾5億 加佣至3%促銷
聯儲局半年五度加息，本港亦自2018年以來再次跟隨調高利率，樓市氣氛轉差，投資物業市場交投再減，投資者遂積極放售物業。綜合市場消息及資訊，資深投資者、裕泰興家族成員羅守輝及有關人士大規模放售旗下乙級商廈物業，涉最少12項，俱為全層單位，意向價總值逾5億元，並加佣至3%促銷。
俱為全層單位 11項處灣仔
據了解，羅守輝及有關人士正放售12項乙級商廈物業，當中11項來自灣仔區，餘下1項則在油麻地，大部分都在2010至2017年期間購入，現時每項物業叫價由2180萬至6500萬元，涉及總值逾5.07億元。代理透露，為加快物業出售速度，賣家近期加佣至3%，較正常1%多出兩倍。
當中，叫價最高的物業為灣仔告士打道221至226號海聯大廈7樓全層，建築面積4721方呎，叫價為6500萬元，呎價約13768元。該層現分間為4個單位，享全海景，當中兩個租出，月租共19.3萬元。該層於2017年以4818萬元購入，目前放售價較買入價高1682萬元或34.9%。
同一時間，亦有放售同一地段告士打道166至168號信和財務大廈1樓及2樓兩層，每層建築面積3050方呎，現每層以3812.5萬元放售，呎價約12500元，合共價值7625萬元。至於灣仔軒尼詩道258號德士古大廈2樓全層，建築面積約4200方呎，半年前已經以5796萬元放盤，上月降價至4536萬元，呎價約10800元，減幅逾兩成，雖然如此，仍較2014年的買入價2748.9萬元，高出65%。
油麻地商廈入市半年即覓買家
羅守輝及有關人士除放賣已購入一段時間的物業外，亦有商廈單位「即買即放」，例如今年3月才以1420萬元向資深投資者「舖王」鄧成波家族購入油麻地彌敦道570至572號基利商業大廈4樓全層，建築面積約2154方呎，連一個約1054方呎平台，目前正以2180萬元放盤，呎價約10121元，較半年前購入價高760萬元或53.5%。
是次在市場上推售的12項乙級商廈物業，有10個在2006年至2017年期間購入，入市成本較低，故12項物業總購入價逾3億元，若以放售價總值逾5.07億元沽出，料仍可獲不俗利潤。
事實上，羅守輝及有關人士今年初仍有購入物業投資，包括商廈及地舖等，但3月起開始積極沽售物業，至今半年間已最少賣出12項物業，包括全幢商廈、地舖、乙級商廈全層及工廈全層，合共已套現最少約6.5億元；其中最大宗為9月以2.75億元售出中環皇后大道中118至120號一幢商廈。
(信報)
更多德士古大廈寫字樓出售樓盤資訊請參閱：德士古大廈寫字樓出售
更多灣仔區甲級寫字樓出售樓盤資訊請參閱：灣仔區甲級寫字樓出售
